Title
Adoption of Resolution Declaring the Existence of a Local Emergency in Response to the 2026-27 El Niño, Anticipated King Tides, and Winter Storm Impacts, and Authorization of a Supplemental Fiscal Year 2026-27 Budget Appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Unassigned Fund Balance for Storm Preparation and Response. (City Manager 10021030, Project C99400)
Body
To: Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council
From: Gerry Beaudin, City Manager
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting a 100 percent chance of a very strong El Niño for the State of California through fall and winter 2026-27, and an 83 percent chance that it will exceed the strength of every El Niño event on record since 1950. El Niño-related elevated coastal water levels are already occurring. Combined with three upcoming king tide cycles and winter storms, these conditions threaten Alameda with coastal flooding, including flooding in areas with little or no flooding history, disrupted access on and off the island, and strain on the City of Alameda's (City) storm drain and pump systems.
Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide State of Emergency on September 21, 2026 (Exhibit 1) to help state and local agencies prepare in advance of the expected impacts.
Staff is recommending that the City Council declare a local emergency in response to the 2026-27 El Niño, anticipated king tides, and winter storm impacts. This declaration will allow the City to use the emergency authorities available under state and local law, support coordination with the County of Alameda and the State, and preserve the City's ability to document costs and seek reimbursement if it becomes available.
BACKGROUND
The 2026-27 El Niño forecast. According to the NWS's mid-October update, El Niño is present and continues to strengthen in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. NWS forecasts a 100 percent chance of a very strong event through the fall and winter, and an 83 percent chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous events dating back to 1950. El Niño is an oceanic phenomenon, not a storm, and it does not determine where or when individual storms will occur. Even very strong events do not produce the same impacts everywhere. NWS identifies coastal erosion and storm surge, enhanced heavy rainfall, landslides and debris flows, and changes to Sierra Nevada snowpack as potential hazards, and notes that elevated coastal water levels have already been occurring.
State and regional action. On September 21, 2026, the Governor proclaimed a statewide State of Emergency, finding that conditions of extreme peril exist due to the developing El Niño event and that elevated baseline coastal water levels, combined with high tides, large waves, and coastal storms, increase the risk of coastal flooding and damage to public and private infrastructure. The proclamation directs state agencies to prepare, stage flood response supplies, and expedite permitting to support local preparedness efforts. Jurisdictions across the state have also proclaimed or are planning to proclaim local emergencies related to the El Niño event.
DISCUSSION
Alameda's exposure. Alameda is an island city with low-lying shoreline areas. Each year, king tides, the highest predicted tides of the year, bring tidal flooding, tide anomalies, and drainage challenges to parts of the City, and high-water levels in the Bay make it harder for stormwater to drain. El Niño can raise coastal water levels further, and winds, waves, and low atmospheric pressure can push actual water levels above predicted tides. This year, those conditions could potentially overlap with three king tide cycles, which are forecast over for November 22-26 (Thanksgiving), December 23-25 (Christmas) and January 21-22 (MLK Jr. Holiday).
In October, City staff attended an Alameda County Office of Emergency Services (OES) briefing for all jurisdictions, where NWS and County OES presented modeling of a worst-case scenario in which coastal water levels reach up to three feet above predicted tide levels during one of the three king tide cycles. At that worst-case level, the modeling indicates:
• Roadways providing access to Bay Farm Island could be submerged, potentially isolating the community.
• The Posey and Webster Tubes could flood, restricting access on and off the island.
• Flooding could reach City-owned and leased residential properties at Alameda Point, possibly requiring protective measures or evacuations.
• Other low-lying areas could experience significant coastal flooding, including areas with little or no flooding history.
These scenarios do not include rainfall associated with an El Niño storm. A significant storm coinciding with a king tide could overwhelm storm drainage systems and pump stations, compounding response challenges. A king tide cycle lasts three to four days, so access restrictions could repeat over several consecutive tide cycles. This is a worst-case scenario, not a forecast, but staff expect flooding in parts of the City that have not historically flooded, even if conditions fall short of it.
City preparations to date. On October 19, 2026, the City partially activated its Emergency Operations Center to begin planning its response to the upcoming storm season and to coordinate communication and outreach efforts to ensure the community is aware of the potential impacts and prepared. Public Works crews are getting ready for storm season. Work underway includes checking and maintaining storm drains, clearing outfalls and known flood-prone areas, and inspecting pump stations and backup generators.
Given the forecast, the City began offering free sandbags earlier than usual, starting October 6, 2026, at the self-service station at Lexington Avenue and West Hope Street, with staff assistance for loading scheduled for Saturday, November 7. Two additional self-service stations opened on October 19, at Washington Park (1300 8th Street) and Grandview Pavilion on Bay Farm Island (300 Island Drive). More information about the City's storm prep activities is available on the City's website <https://www.alamedaca.gov/Departments/Public-Works-Department/Prepare-for-Storm-Season>.
Purpose of the declaration. The declaration is an initial precautionary step to position the City to act quickly before the first king tide cycle. It supports the City's ability to use emergency authorities under state and local law, including flexibility in staffing (via the Incident Command System), procurement, and contracting; to coordinate with County, State, and regional partners; and to document eligible costs in the event state or federal assistance becomes available. Consistent with the September 30, 2026, memorandum to City Council, <https://www.alamedaca.gov/files/assets/public/v/1/elnino-memo-final.pdf> staff continues to emphasize that El Niño does not guarantee a wet winter or a particular storm outcome, and that the declaration reflects preparation for the risks identified by NWS and County OES.
Government Code Section 8630(c) requires the City Council to review the need for continuing the local emergency at least once every 60 days until it is terminated. 60 days from the date of this recommended action is January 3, 2027. Staff will return with option to extend the local emergency at the December 1, 2026 City Council meeting to ensure the local emergency covers the anticipated king tides in January.
Budget for Preparation and Response Activities
To further support the City’s emergency preparedness posture, Staff recommend that the City Council authorize a supplemental FY 2026-27 budget appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Unassigned Fund Balance to support immediate preparedness and response activities associated with this emergency. Potential expenditures could include, but would not necessarily be limited to:
• Temporary pumps, generators, hoses, barriers, sandbags, and other flood-control materials;
• Emergency equipment rental;
• Emergency drainage, vegetation, debris removal, or maintenance work;
• Temporary flood-control improvements;
• Emergency contractor services;
• Supplies and equipment necessary to protect City staff, facilities, and infrastructure;
• Traffic-control and road-closure equipment;
• Emergency communications and public information;
• Staff overtime and other extraordinary personnel costs, where appropriate and eligible;
• Emergency sheltering or other community-support activities, if necessary; and
• Other unanticipated expenditures directly related to preparing for or responding to severe winter weather.
The requested authorization would allow the City to act quickly as conditions and forecasts evolve without returning to the City Council for individual expenditures within the $500,000 authorization. Staff will track expenditures separately to support financial reporting and any potential reimbursement requests from state or federal agencies.
ALTERNATIVES
• Do not declare a local emergency. This would limit the City's flexibility to prepare for the anticipated El Niño and king tide impacts, and the City would not have the emergency authorities described in this report.
FINANCIAL IMPACT
There is no direct financial impact from the City Council declaring a local emergency. However, while not guaranteed, a local emergency declaration may support the City's ability to recover eligible costs if state or federal assistance becomes available.
The recommended action would authorize a supplemental FY 2026-27 budget appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Unassigned Fund Balance to Project C99400, titled El Niño FY 2027, for preparation and response activities associated with this emergency. There is adequate available fund balance in excess of the 25% City Council-mandated General Fund balance to support this supplemental appropriation.
Only actual costs incurred would be charged against this authorization. Staff will track and document personnel and other costs related to the emergency from the outset so the City is positioned to seek reimbursement should it become available.
MUNICIPAL CODE/POLICY DOCUMENT CROSS REFERENCE
Alameda Municipal Code Chapter 2-24 defines a local emergency as the actual or threatened existence of conditions of disaster or of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property within the jurisdiction. Government Code Section 8630 allows a local emergency to be proclaimed by the governing body or by an official designated by ordinance, requires that a declaration by a designated official be ratified by the governing body within seven days, and requires the governing body to review the need for continuing the local emergency at least once every 60 days until it terminates the emergency. The City's Emergency Operations Plan provides for activation of the Emergency Operations Center when a local emergency has been declared or conditions of extreme peril are threatened.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
This action does not constitute a “project” as defined in California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines Section 15378 and therefore no further CEQA analysis is required.
CLIMATE IMPACT
There are no direct climate impacts or climate action opportunities associated with ratifying a local emergency declaration.
RECOMMENDATION
Adopt a Resolution declaring the existence of a local emergency in response to the 2026-27 El Niño and anticipated King Tide and winter storm impacts.
Respectfully submitted,
John Stefanski, Interim Assistant City Manager
Financial Impact section reviewed,
Ross McCarthy, Finance Director
Exhibit
1. State of California Proclamation of a State of Emergency, September 21, 2026